ASOTR Lucky 15 - Week 1 - 16/09/23

 Lucky 15 Selections Week 1

@RacingWithMike

16:00 Bath - Beyond Equal (5/1)

With not a great deal of value floating around at Doncaster bar the Portland and the final race which looks like a minefield, I’ve decided to cast my eye over the Summer Sprint Series Final Handicap at Bath which has attracted a maximum field of 17 runners. The one that I’ve landed on is Beyond Equal for Stuart Kittow. The horse is now 13lb lower than his last winning mark and has been banging on the door in his last two starts under new jockey Liam Keniry. He was beaten a neck by the reopposing Magnificence over C&D when letting the mare get first run and was 3rd behind Rathbone in a competitive Sunday series race last time out where he was held up at the back on the rail and finished with a wet sail once a gap opened up for him just over a furlong from home. I think it is safe to say he would have been second and a lot closer to the eventual winner if it wasn’t for the traffic problems. Rathbone has since defied a 7lb higher mark by winning again at Doncaster earlier in the week and the 5th that day, Buccabay, bolted up 3 days ago coincidentally also over 5 and a half furlongs at Bath. Beyond Equal has ran three times at Bath and form over C&D reads 512 which is a plus. It is worth pointing out that the trainer of Magnificence has enlisted the services of 7lb claimer Liam Wright so she is effectively now 3lb better off at the weights than when defeating the selection in their last meeting but the jockey has only ridden 12 winners which somewhat negates the weight difference. I also notice there are a whole host of C&D winners in the line up but the ones closest to Beyond Equal in the betting are drawn wider which is a slight negative at a track like Bath where there is a very early turn. Keniry is clearly getting a decent tune out of this 8 year old who is certainly looking ready to exploit his low mark so if he’s able to keep tabs on Magnificence and not let her get first run, today could be the day for him. The trainer is also operating at 56% RTF rate, including a winner at Bath 3 days ago, which is respectable. Providing he breaks well and doesn’t get given a mountain to climb like he did at Sandown, I fancy him to take this prize.

@MattySutcliffe

16:10 Doncaster - Masekela (11/2) 

Masekela has been badly out of sorts this season, but there was a glimmer of hope last time out that he retains some shred of his ability from last season. He was slowly away, as was the release of his blindfold, at York in a competitive handicap and he was very keen to boot. I half expected him to fall out the back of the TV, but he carried on all the way to the line and clocked a quicker overall final three furlongs than half the field. He was having his first run after a wind-operation there, and horses often come on for their second run as they realise they can breathe easier.  His two career wins to date have come in small fields including once making all and the other on soft ground, so today's conditions may suit without an abundance of pace on. This time last year he was 2nd to Adayar over course and distance running to and RPR of 108, and given he's now 14lbs below what he was rated then (104), he's well handicapped to go in soon enough.

@JMHorseRacing

16:55 Lingfield - Cloud Cover (11/1) 

A horse that’s took my eye on all four of her starts so far and finally put it all together last time out. The form of her second novice run is pretty smart (5th but split horses rated 90 and 79) and she transferred that to her first Fillies’ Handicap last time. She was given a mark of 72 for that race and made a mockery of it considering she pulled a train the whole way round and simply wouldn’t settle until the latter stages. I think +2lbs from the handicapper is awfully lenient for the improving filly and she may be the class edge in this class 5 handicap. 

Being by Night of Thunder she’ll probably want the mile in the future but she certainly has the speed to stay at 7f at this stage in her career. Hopefully Tom can settle her a little better today and she’ll see it out well. 

The field today is no doubt a little stronger but she’s much more unexposed than these and could easily improve past them. 

@Lovestheraces

17:00 Chester - Roman Dragon (11/4)

The case is an obvious one to me: He returns to the C&D where all four of his wins have come (overall C&D record of 511141). He has ran two absolute crackers in his last two races. Two starts ago he finished 2nd over slightly shorter at Chester. Where he probably found himself further back than he would’ve liked, and had the door slammed shut on him, when first coming with a run. He then had a couple of months off, and reappeared back over the same C&D. He finished a short-head 2nd to Call Me Ginger. Where he was chinned on the line after pulling away from the others. Call Me Ginger was well in, has since won again, and now finds himself as favourite for the Portland from an 8lb higher mark. The horse in 4th won at Chester by ~4L’s yesterday. The horse in 6th came 5th of 14 in a Racing League handicap next time, and the horse in 7th finished 2nd of 14 in a different Racing League handicap next time. So, the form is stacking up.

He has been raised 3lb’s, but he’s in a weaker field here. And I don’t think it’s enough to stop him from going in, now back over 6F’s. Palmer’s yard are having a good spell. Hopefully, Hayley will sit him just off the leaders, and take up the lead just after they turn in.

Be lucky🍀