ASOTR Lucky 15

 @RacingWithMike

13:50 Newmarket - Al Musmak 6/1

My pick for this week's lucky 15 is Al Musmak in Newmarket's group 2 Royal Lodge that kicks off the card. He's done nothing wrong in his 3 starts to date, his only defeat being to the very talented Rosallion, and he relished every step of the trip when upped to a mile at Haydock on his last start where he tasted listed success. I see no reason why he cannot continue to progress and the proven stamina against rivals who haven't yet raced over the trip will be a big asset. I'm happy to back him here against the likes of Capulet and Aablan. For all that the latter might well improve for the trip, I don't think the Solario form amounts to much at all. In regards to Capulet, I think he may have been somewhat flattered at Leopardstown on a weekend where barely any horse was coming off the pace and he enjoyed an easy time on the front end with stablemate Diego Velazquez. At Vimeiro could be a fly in the ointment, myself and Ellis both omitted him from our eyecatchers in the week he made his debut as we thought the other was writing about him! The form of Al Musmak's 2nd at Ascot is working out tremendously with the 4th horse, Alyanaabi, winning a group 3 on Thursday after overcoming adversity in the run in and the 5th horse, Dancing Gemini, won a listed race with the minimum of fuss at the St Leger meeting. The selection has already beaten Macduff comfortably and for all that Ghostwriter could be anything, I think Al Musmak's form is clearly better and I'm amazed the Cox horse is shorter in places. Cox is in marginally better form than Varian and has a Newmarket winner to his name already this week but I'm expecting a strong showing from Varian's Night Of Thunder colt to land him and David Egan their first ever win in the Royal Lodge.

@Lovestheraces

14:40 Haydock - Arecibo 8/1

Very good form at Haydock throughout his career, including 2 starts ago when 3rd here in above average CL2 company. He's now 4lbs below that mark. The soft ground will suit. Jason Hart, the best jockey in the race is jocked-up. This race is a poorer field than the 3rd mentioned above. If you discount the York run, he has been running well this season, so 3lbs is a big drop for a bad run. The last time he ran of soft ground in a handicap he finished 2nd to this Nunthorpe winner (giving him 3lbs too). That came at the start of this season. Now I'm not saying he's good enough to win a Nunthorpe, but he is 15lbs below that mark here, and clearly ran into a sprinter on the up. If he runs to the form of 2 of his previous 3 runs, he should be winning this. 8/1 is a very nice price.

@MattySutcliffe

16:25 Haydock - Safe Voyage 13/2

John Quinn's admirable Safe Voyage returned to the winner's enclosure last month for the first time since 2019. Despite breaking slowly and racing in rear throughout, which is never ideal at Chester, Jason Hart was able to track across to the inner saving ground all the way, before angling out right and being very comfortable on top at the finish. The form has worked out nicely as the 2nd (2 1/2l, gave 2lbs) was an eased down winner next time out and was an unlucky 3rd last time out off a 6lbs higher mark at Ayr. The 4th is also 4lbs higher having won next time out. Safe Voyage has been put up 5lbs to a mark of 100 which should be no issue given he was a close 4th in the Balmoral when last seen off this mark. It'll be interesting to see how they ride him as there's very little pace on, and three of his wins have come when making all, though as he's got older he's tended to be held up or sat in midfield. Regardless, he's tactically versatile so I've no issue how it pans out. His record here reads 1111285 and he's 2-2 in handicaps here (including off 103) and he'll have his beloved soft ground. The mile trip raises the brow slightly, however he won over a mile at Leopardstown in 2020 and shaped like he might want this trip at this point in his career last time out.

@JMHorseRacing

4.53 Chester - Thebeautifulgame 11/2 

Thebeauitfulgame is a horse that’s been struggling to keep consistency within her short career but I believe she has a great chance today. She started her career with rapid progression on each start (first three starts read 6-2-1) yet never really kicked on from that. But it’s her last run that really interest’s me, where she finished a staying-on third at Sandown. The form of that race looks fair with the second coming out and finishing places again and a few other runners’ running well since. She looked in desperate need of a step up in trip that day and she gets it here. The ground shouldn’t be an issue as she placed on GS on her second start and her Sire won on soft a few times. I hope Rab can settle her at the back and produce her with a devastating run towards the latter stages. 

Good luck 🤞