ASOTR Lucky15.

 @RacingWithMike

15:00 Ayr - Pretty Crystal 7/2

After last week’s disappointment, I’m dipping my toe back into familiar waters with a tip at the feature meeting on a Saturday as opposed to a 17 runner handicap at Bath. I think Pretty Crystal is a great bet at 7/2 (she definitely wasn’t 10/1 at time of original write up on Thursday) in this group 3 contest over 6 furlongs. With two horses near the top of the betting very unexposed, it makes sense to me for a chance to be taken on one of those near the head of the ratings with proven group form and of the 3 horses rated 97 or higher, I’m chancing Fahey’s filly despite the ratings saying she has a bit to find with Navassa Island and Dorothy Lawrence. The latter has certainly improved since stepping up to 6 furlongs so rates a big danger albeit her best form seems to be with ‘firm’ in the going and she had to scrape home to beat inferior rivals over 5f here in July. I’m also not entirely convinced I can trust Navassa Island as she seems to be quite in and out and her form since that sparkling debut in a group 3 hasn’t been spectacular. I’d certainly have a question mark over how well she travels across the Irish Sea as the Albany effort was particularly disappointing given her close proximity to the eventual winner on her only prior start. One horse who did run well in the Albany was the selection Pretty Crystal who finished 5th on only her 2nd start after a novice race at Ripon that has seen 2 multiple winners come out of the race behind her. Following the effort in the Albany, she was 2nd over the same C&D in another group 3 contest to a very talented Johnston 2yo that went on to finish 4th in the Morny against big guns Vandeek, Ramatuelle and River Tiber. Her latest effort saw her come 4th (in a blanket finish for 2nd, 3rd and 4th) behind runaway May Hill winner Darnation in a Goodwood group 3. She’s very well bred by Dubawi out of a multiple black type winner and the form of her last 3 starts is certainly littered with class. On a line through Jabaara, she should have the beating of Botti’s unbeaten Great Generation who beat the same horse at Chester by 3 lengths. For all the favourite could be anything, Jim Crowley hasn’t ridden a winner in 42 days and the trainer’s last winner was on the 8th September which was actually this filly, ridden by James Doyle as Crowley was at Ascot. On the basis that the two unexposed fillies look beatable, I am going to hope that the proven group class prevails and hope I don’t regret not picking Dorothy Lawrence! I was lucky enough to see Pretty Crystal at Fahey’s stable on Malton Open Day and she’s a gorgeous horse with a lot of muscle for a 2 year old filly. Fingers crossed that the persistence of connections running at her at group 3 level will be rewarded.

@MattySutcliffe

3:25 Newmarket - Equiano Springs 13/2 

It's almost worth completely ignoring Equiano Springs whenever he doesn't run under these conditions. His record over 6F in Class 4 company on the Rowley Mile reads 1111, with all four wins coming with Tom Queally on board. We can forgive him then, for his last two starts where he was a market drifter on the July course (though has a good record there too) under Adam Farragher, before beaten 10L up in grade and trip at Haydock last time out. Back in his prime conditions and Queally on board, he should be going close to taking his record in this race to 4-4.

@lovestheraces

4:20 York - Existent 14/1 

The horse and race were both mentioned in this week’s mark tracker. The ground should be perfect for him, and the drop back to 5F is what I’ve been waiting for. As pointed out, his last 3 runs with these conditions:

• 2nd to Lord (Cash Machine) Riddiford at Goodwood, when having to go widest off of 100.
• Staying on 5th at Ascot off of 102.
• 4L 7th in a G3 at Newmarket.

(All this season)

Off a mark of 93 he’s now very well in. He’s drawn near the majority of the pace (stalls 13-4), which suits his hold-up style. I won’t claim to know much about Luke Catton, but he gave Quinault an absolute peach for us the other week. Which was boosted yesterday with Popmaster, to make the ride even better. Luke takes another valuable 5lb’s from his back. If Luke can get him into a nice rhythm early, just off of the leaders, he’ll be staying on best of all at the end.

@JMHorseRacing

5:00 Newbury - Greatest Time @ 33/1

Greatest Time is a horse I’ve had in my tracker for a fair while now after his brilliant debut. On his debut second, he split Kolsai (listed and Group 3 placed, now rated 106) and the ill fated Regal Honour (before sadly passing was rated 96). Greatest Time has clearly had an issue or two as he’s had large breaks between his next two runs, in which he considerably underperformed. But the underwhelming performance last time out may have been by design as he was given an easy time of it out the back before staying on fairly eyecatching-ly well. He’s been given a fair mark of 82 for his handicap debut and I believe he could have a few pounds in hand going forward. 

He’s certainly more of a speculative bet but his pedigree is smart and his debut was scintillating. If he can get back on track, I think he’s got a chance here.