ASOTR Lucky 15 (Each Way) - 07/10/23.

 @RacingWithMike

13:30 Newmarket - Red Danielle 6/1 3 places (4 with 365)

At the risk of upsetting Ellis who was fairly keen on one antepost here before she wasn't declared, I'm sticking one up in the opener at Newmarket. The selection comes in the shape of wide margin Yarmouth winner Red Danielle for Varian and Egan who enjoyed success together at the track last Saturday. This filly has ran 4 times this season and I think she's remarkably well handicapped on the back of her second to Sweet Memories who has subsequently gone on to win a listed race, place in a group 3 and achieve a rating of 105. Red Danielle carried the same weight as her that day, only finished a neck behind her and is allowed to run off a mark of 90. She also had the Oaks 4th comfortably beat behind her, though that form isn't necessarily very special. It was obvious that she was going to win at Yarmouth and the handicapper was lenient enough to only raise her 3lb for such a facile success. At 7/1, she's a bet for me on handicap debut.

@JMHorseRacing

15:55 Redcar - Purplepay 8/1 3 places

In what is quite a poor renewal of the Guisborough stakes, Purplepay only needs to find some of her previous form to win this. 3 starts ago she finished second behind Heredia at Haydock, Heredia has won again since and now contests in the group one Sun Chariot. The field against her today doesn’t really look incredibly strong, most coming out of handicaps and stepping up to this class. Whereas Purplepay is solid at this level and won a French Group 2 last season. I think Purplepay brings the best back-class to this race all things considered and hopefully she’ll be prominent in the race and be very hard to peg back if she kicks 2f out.

@MattySutcliffe

16:10 Ascot - Zouky 11/1 3 places

Despite being a listed contest, just one of these fillies & mares have won a contest of this grade or higher which is Queen Aminatu, though she is 0-8 on turf and easily past over. The two who bring group form are Nigiri and Breege, the latter has placed three times in G3 company, but she's winless since debut and she strikes me as a soft filly who lacks a genuine winning mentality, and the former is on the up this season though she was beaten four lengths last time out and unsure whether that warranted a 10lbs rise to her official mark. Cell Sa Bella is one I've followed closely this season and has a win in her providing she drops her head, and a strongly run 7F like this could suit but she's an inconsistent type and I'd be banking on how she behaves mentally (may be worth backing in play as a single if she settles early). Finally, the one I'm backing is Phillip McBride's ZOUKY, who took the step up in trip well at Newbury in August to win for the first time since last September. The form hasn't amounted to much but visually she was excellent, and she improved on that performance when 2nd up in grade at Doncaster to the chucked in Poet Master. Very little got into the race from off the pace (regular occurrence that week at Donny) and Poet Master was favoured by the front-running ride, but Zouky can be well marked up given the ground she made up (clocked quickest 5th/6th furlong) from the rear and I thought her subsequent 1lbs rise in the official ratings was lenient given the winner was put up 8lbs, so it's interesting they haven't stuck to the handicapping route and instead jump into this listed contest. Now back against her own class, she can continue her upward trajectory and capitalise off a good clip which is often the case in these fillies & mares contests.

@Lovestheraces

16:30 Redcar - Titian 9/1 5 places

First of all let’s address the draw: yes I know he’s drawn in Middlesbrough. But, he’s one of the three obvious pace angle’s in the race. And he’s the clear best of the three. They are also drawn in stalls 14 and 11, so all of the pace is on the outer, meaning the horses on the rails will be wanting someone to come over and set the pace. Which’ll hopefully make it easier for Titian to get over early, and therefore matter less. Titian has been largely consistent this year on ground ranging from good to heavy. And he’s a previous good ground winner, as well as a soft ground winner, so whatever the ground throws up it won’t matter. FWIW I think it’ll be on the quick side of good. Last time out came in that period where a lot of Julie’s runners were running miles below form - so I think you can mark the performance up. He was only a length behind the favourite that day and I actually thought he was sticking on better than him that day, until La Trinidad came across him to stunt any further progress. And it’s 10/1 Vs 5/1 today. As previously mentioned I think Titian is a clear pace angle in a race that doesn’t have too many, and he’s the classiest horse of the front runners. The other two front runners are Cl5-4 horses really. I’ve gone EW 5pl, mainly because of the potential draw issue. If he’d have been drawn in stall 1, I’d have gone win only and doubled my stake.