ASOTR LUCKY 15

  

 @MattySutcliffe

Kelso 13:29  Empire Steel 5/2

This race will largely revolve around whether Grand National winner Corach Rambler is ready to go. Connections have earmarked the Gold Cup as a potential aim this season, so you'd imagine he'd have to take this, or at least go very close off a mark of 159 to be seriously considered in the same bracket as Galopin Des Champs.  He has to give at least a stone away to the field and he's 0-3 on seasonal reappearance, however he's a very reasonable price at 7/2 (current time of writing). Elvis Mail has been well backed in to favouritism having took a C&D handicap by 7L when last seen off 138, but he's 5lbs higher this time around and yet too defy a mark in the 140s. For all I like the loveable grey, he is prone to a bad error and will have to prove that last time out was no fluke. Empire Steel is the one that makes the largest amount of appeal with little negatives attached to him. The selection loves it around here with his course record reading 1121 and that '2' was only 1/2L away from another '1'. His record after a break reads 111270, with the latter pair coming at Aintree and Sandown, though he was pulled up previously at Aintree and he didn't seem to enjoy Sandown either. He revels in the mud with all wins coming with soft in the description, and is best suited to a small field, with his record in fields of 6 or under reading 21121. Conditions are perfectly suited to him today, with the only niggling concern being the yards form.

@RacingWithMike

16:25 Doncaster Zip 9/2

My selection for this weekend’s racing is Fahey’s lovable grey Zip. A heavy ground winner at Doncaster in November last year and a soft ground winner there in November 2020, he is now 2lb below his last winning mark from February earlier this year and could be dangerous here. He’s been disappointing after returning from his 67 day break with his only good performance coming on his only all weather start since. He probably isn’t seen to best effect on better ground but he certainly seems to relish this time of year and the conditions that he will face today. I have question marks over the favourite Wobwobwob who is currently perched on a career-high mark and has ran over 6 furlongs the last 3 times. He was 2nd at Goodwood on heavy over 7f but bitterly disappointing last time out at York when sent off 7/2 favourite. I’m not convinced he wants these conditions. Racingbreaks Ryder seems to be well fancied but seems to have lost his way since notching up an early season hat-trick and I cannot have him on my mind for this even if he has been dropped 2lb for last time. The main threat for Zip is probably stablemate Maywake but he’s also on a career-high mark after a Sandown romp and Zip seems to be more of a mud lover despite the top weight winning by 6 lengths on soft ground at Thirsk in August. At 9/2, Zip is the play for me. 

@JMHorseRacing

16:45 Cheltenham The Kemble Brewery 4/1

This horse is a no-brainer bet for me today, I was at Huntingdon where he made his debut last season and to say I was impressed would be putting it lightly. Kim Bailey had a fairly poor season in 2022/23 considering his own high standards, despite this The Kemble Brewery won on his debut from the front in a demolishing fashion. He was certainly green although the market vibes were strong for this £100,000+ purchase and he duly obliged. He’s a horse I’ll be following all season no matter what he does today, the better prices have been smashed now (by myself included) but I’ll be having more on at 4/1, I LOVE this horse.

@Lovestheraces

16:58 Doncaster Look Back Smiling 6/1

I think the favourite is priced up on what her sibling has done, rather than what she has shown on track. She should relish the conditions, but her form isn’t comparable to Look Back Smiling’s.

Look Back Smiling is a mudlark, and I doubt there’s connections happier than his to see the race go ahead. Yesterday been cancelled, and today’s morning inspection should show you how bad the ground will be today. He’s 4lb’s below the cracker he ran in the 50k Cl2 at Doncaster. That bare form is better than any of the form the field brings to the race, and he also wasn’t majorly exerted that day.

A weird ride at Nottingham to say the least, but straight back to form at York when running a very good race. Again under another tame ride after missing the break. That’s his issue - the stalls. If he gets them right today, and breaks level, he won’t be beat