Champions Day 2023 Preview

Champions Day 2023 Preview - @RacingWithMike

Long Distance Cup

The first race of the day serves up what promises to be a very appetising starter as the usual suspects of the staying division line up to clash once more in the form of Trueshan, Coltrane and Broome who must be lining up against each other for at least the sixth time?! Add star stayer Kyprios into the mix and the relatively unexposed Gosden pair Sweet William and Trawlerman into the mix and you’ve got a cracking opener. The rejuvenated Trueshan will be looking to win this for a 4th year in a row after turning his poor start to the season round with a battling success over Sweet William in the Doncaster Cup and an imperious performance in the Cadran, which admittedly lacked its usual quality. He certainly seems to have rediscovered his old form following his wind surgery and I personally think this race is between him and Kyprios. The Ascot Gold Cup hero and last year’s 20 length Cadran winner is the current favourite for the race and on ratings, should be getting the better of these rivals now that fitness is on his side following a rather one-paced return at the Curragh after 344 days off the track. He side-stepped the race last year but this should be the year he claims Champions Day glory after skipping the Cadran. He’s versatile with the ground and is generally just a better horse than the rest of his rivals, he oozes class. Coltrane will have to put his abysmal showing last time out behind him which is possible given his usual very consistent profile but I do think he lacks the class of Kyprios and Trueshan (despite beating the latter before). Sweet William could have beaten Trueshan at Doncaster but doesn’t seem to find a great deal out in front and perhaps idled his chance away while Trawlerman was beaten 3 and a quarter lengths in this race by Trueshan last year on his first attempt at 2 miles. He’s coming into this race really unexposed at the trip following 2 facile victories at Salisbury and Newmarket. Broome hasn’t looked like he’s up to this level at all since his Hardwicke success last year so I don’t expect any miracles from him and Stratum and Maxident definitely won’t be troubling anyone. The favourite takes this one in my opinion. 

Champions Sprint

I can't help but think that the sprint division has been weak for the last year or 2 hence Kinross winning this race last year and once again lining up as favourite. I would have been all over Shaquille had he lined up but he wasn’t declared sadly, leaving us with Vadream and Mill Stream as 2nd and 3rd favourites. Kinross isn’t an out and out sprinter but he will likely win this once again because the opposition is hideous and the conditions are likely to be stamina testing which a 7f specialist should love. It’s boring to go for another favourite but he’s drawn well and fairly clear on ratings. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a flat horse as ground dependent as Vadream but with conditions to suit, she can give this a good crack as both of her wins this season have come on soft and heavy, including a victory over the Nunthorpe winner at Newmarket on her first ever start over 5f. Mill Stream won 2 pattern races at Deauville very easily earlier this year but was beaten comfortably in the Haydock Sprint cup with Swingalong and Believing in front of him, for all that he may reverse the form with them on softer ground, I just can’t see him being up to this level and think a general 15/2 is a little too short. Former Albany winner Sandrine was a good winner at Doncaster last time out in a first time visor which is retained, she got the better of Kinross at Goodwood last year and Balding will be hoping she can do the same this year. She’s a fair each way price at 8/1. I’m not overly sold by the remainder of the horses. Rohaan is 0-10 in group 1’s and is the lowest rated horse in the field, I’m amazed they’re persisting with him at this level. Spycatcher was beaten in the Maurice De Gheest as favourite and even though he went off favourite for that, I do think it would be amazing if he managed to win a group 1. Of those at big prices, if I were to have a mental each way swing or 2 it would be on last year’s runner up and this year’s July cup runner up Run To Freedom for Henry Candy who knows how to train a sprinter. He’s a general 25/1 shot which is generous for the second highest rated horse in the field. He’s prone to a stinker every now and then but always seems to hit the frame at a big price and with a race that looks poor on the face of it and tends to throw up some absurd results, why not take a swing? The other one I would give consideration to would be Saint Lawrence who won the Wokingham before coming half a length 3rd in the Maurice De Gheest on very soft ground. He’s only had 3 starts for Archie Watson so is open to more improvement and could be the 40/1 fly in the ointment. 

Fillies & Mares

Perhaps the best of the fillies & mares are bypassing this race with bigger, American targets in mind but that doesn't mean the race is any less competitive with a whole host of horses in with a chance of claiming this group 1. Current favourite Free Wind has 3 group 2 wins to her name but fell short of claiming her first group 1 when going down a head to Warm Heart in the Yorkshire Oaks. You’d have to imagine either her or Emily Upjohn would be favourite if lining up here, even Soul Sister if she wasn’t out for the season! Free Wind was disappointing in the Arc but can claim redemption in this race, something that a certain Magical did in 2018 before becoming a group 1 winning machine. That said, the recent record of 3 year olds in this race is something to note with them winning every renewal of the race since 2016. My pick for this would be Jackie Oh who unlike Free Wind actually ran with real credit in France and was only denied a neck by super filly Blue Rose Cen in the Opera. She seems to relish testing ground and a step up in trip can only be a good thing for a Galileo mare. I think we’ll see a huge improvement and 4/1 is a good, fair price about a horse who is still probably improving in a race that lacks that group 1 star. Time Lock has been steadily progressive but I’m not sure she really wants a bog and again, I’m not sure she’s up to the level but would prefer her to Bluestocking who has become a bit of a dodge pot. Henry De Bromhead sends over group 3 winner Term of Endearment who will relish the testing ground and she could be a tad overpriced. Above The Curve took some big scalps in the Prix Corrida at the start of the season and nearly held on to win the Nassau, she could be a threat to Jackie Oh. Stay Alert is perhaps a big price if you believe she could have won the Pretty Polly with a clear run (I don’t). Running Lion may well be suited by the softer ground given her convincing victory over Sumo Sam back at HQ in May but I think that would be a bit of a leap of faith. Jackie Oh is a solid bet for me.    

Queen Elizabeth II

A race that looks particularly dominated by 3 year olds this year in what is traditionally an epic clash of the generations. The main protagonists this year look to be the pair of Irish Guineas winners Paddington and Tahiyra. Hopefully Weld’s filly takes her chance but we wouldn’t want her to be risked on the ground if she’d hate every inch of it. Paddington is probably the right favourite given his impressive winstreak this season and he won’t have any issue with the conditions as he won the Sussex in a similar sort of swamp. Tahiyra’s turn of foot may be blunted by the ground although she won the Moyglare last year on soft beating Meditate very easily. Nashwa is the third favourite and I’m very glad to see her here as opposed the the Champion. I’ve been calling out for her to get back to a mile ever since that scintillating performance in the Falmouth. Big Rock looked fairly special earlier in the season but was beat by the eventual Arc winner Ace Impact in the French Derby and has been banging his head against a wall since. He did however beat Champion Stakes favourite Horizon Dore by 5 lengths on heavy ground back in May and being beat a length and a quarter by Inspiral isn’t exactly shameful. If Tahiyra stays in the race then he is probably an each way bet at a general 7/1 but obviously that is assuming Aurelien Lemaitre remembers how to ride an English track after his Goodwood horror show. If Tahiyra is withdrawn then I think a small win bet on Nashwa would be the play. She still clearly retains most, if not all of her ability and is still so unexposed over a mile, plus the Gosden team won this in 2017 with a 4 year old filly. If the Sussex left a mark on Paddington like Ryan suggested after the Juddmonte then Paddington is well worth taking on at a short price. Chaldean is certainly on a retrieval mission after being very disappointing since winning the Guineas. I think it’s safe to say this year’s renewal was far from vintage. Facteur Cheval will enjoy the ground based on his Sussex performance but I imagine he lacks the class of any horse shorter than him in the betting and Angel Bleu has been supplemented but I suppose he is running for place money in his preferred ground more than anything.  

Champion Stakes

I think it's safe to say that the QEII is a little better than the Champion Stakes this year with Paddington and Nashwa heading to the mile race and the weather forecast seemingly affecting Juddmonte winner Mostahdaf’s participation. I want to see him run but I think that even if he does, the ground will be too bad to see him to best effect. French winning machine Horizon Dore sports the colours of 2021 winner Sealiway and will be hoping for a repeat of that success as the 11/4 favourite. I would be inclined to take him on at that price as I’m not necessarily sure his form is the spectacular level required for a race like this. The horse who finished 2nd to him in the Prix Dollar was beaten 4 lengths by Hamish and 10 lengths by Arrest in his 2 starts in the UK this August and the horse in 4th in the Prix Dollar was winning a handicap at Goodwood in August. He could well be anything and as I mentioned before, the form with Big Rock is certainly impressive but at 11/4 he isn’t for me. King Of Steel is a gorgeous horse that I have a lot of time for and similarly to Nashwa, could have been fighting for a win in the Irish Champion if not held up in a different county. He’s well worth another go at the trip and I wouldn’t be surprised if he won it. I will however be playing a small win bet on Bay Bridge to go back to back like Cracksman. This race is certainly weaker than the one he won last year and I think he looked better than ever when winning at Kempton just before a creditable 6th in the Arc. Back down to 1m2f won’t be an issue at a track he knows well for all that he was comprehensively beaten by Mostahdaf on good ground at the Royal meeting. This wouldn’t be an overly confident play but the recent record of 3 year olds in this race certainly isn’t as ominous as the fillies and mares race and that is essentially the only reason I am chancing him over King Of Steel. It’s cliche but Stoute can get one ready for a big day as seen last year when winning this after 105 days off after being a beaten favourite in the Eclipse. He prepared him well enough for the Arc with a fine win at Kempton and if the engine is still finely tuned then a big performance can be expected in the Champion. Via Sistina runs here over the fillies & mares race which makes sense as this is more her trip. She definitely isn’t a group 1 filly though and only has one to her name because the quality was so poor. She’ll be doing well to finish top 3 here. My Prospero ran very well in this last year but following a few struggles this term, had to have his sights lowered to listed company to claim a win which isn’t a good look in my opinion, especially considering he scraped home by half a length to beat an 8lb inferior rival who was conceding 3lb and a 97 rated filly was back in 3rd. I think I’d rather be with Dubai Honour if I was backing a Haggas horse, he was poor in the Eclipse but 2nd to Sealiway here in 2021 and wasn’t completely hopeless earlier in 2023 with 2 Aussie group 1’s and a Sha Tin 3rd. 28/1 seems a bit big for him. Point Lonsdale hasn’t got a chance and Royal Rhyme is probably out of his depth.  

Balmoral Handicap

We have a competitive handicap to close the card with a bunch of mudlarks at the head of the betting. After much deliberation, I think the bet here could quite possibly be Awaal for the Crisford team coming out of stall 22. He’s placed in the Lincoln on heavy and also the Royal Hunt Cup and Bunbury Cup this term yet is only 1lb higher than that solid effort in the Lincoln when finishing a length and a quarter behind Migration who now concedes 9lb to him as opposed to 2. Docklands is the favourite after his Britannia win earlier in the season but he was hiked up 10lb for that and was disappointing at Goodwood. On paper he should like the conditions but I’m concerned that only one 3 year old has won this in the last 9 years. Sonny Liston may well have won the Royal Hunt Cup if it wasn’t for the superb performance of stable mate Jimi Hendrix on the far side. He finished ahead of Awaal that day but he gives 2lb to that rival now as opposed to receiving 5lb. I’m not entirely convinced that Sonny Liston will love the ground despite his 2nd on soft last time out but that field was fairly poor and he was chinned on the line by Liberty Lane. Unfortunately for connections, he was raised 4lb for that run so the wait for a big handicap success may have to wait! Baradar goes for a hattrick but on the basis of his previous runs, perhaps he wants to be dropped back down to 7f. There is no doubting though that him and stablemate Raadobarg will love the bog. Al Mubhir is another horse that likes a lot of cut and he has some wide margin wins to his name on soft/heavy but this mark is probably a bit beyond his capabilities and I think he’s a bit on the skinny side, especially with one firm at 10/1. Lattam likes a bit of soft ground too and could well be overpriced at 20/1 but has been disappointing the last three times he has ran. Rhoscolyn has rediscovered a bit of form this season but all 3 of his wins have been at Goodwood off significantly lower marks so I think he has it all to do here off a mark of 100 which is also 2lb higher than his actual rating now. O’Meara has a very good record in the race but none of his horses are standing out to me really. I'd have been most interested in former winner of the race Escobar if he were to sneak in as a reserve but that ship has sailed. Awaal is the play for me and hopefully we’ve touched on a few winners in the rest of the preview! Best of luck with all your bets on what is traditionally a muddling day of racing.