Who’s Well In? Balmoral Edition

Who’s Well In? Balmoral Edition

@lovestheraces

After the success of the Ayr Gold, Silver and Bronze Cup Edition, I've decided to do another edition for the Balmoral Handicap on Champions Day.

What do I mean by “who’s well in”? Well, the Balmoral is an "early closer" race, which means that the horse's race-carrying weight is decided weeks before the race . Whereas the weights of other handicaps are decided using the current ratings of the horses. Because of this, in "early closer" races we get horses that are:

Officially “Well in” —  horses that are now rated higher than the mark used to decide the weight they carry.
And Horses that are “Wrong at the weights” —  horses that are now rated lower than the mark used to decide the weight they carry.

To give an example of this:

In the Balmoral Bopedro is currently rated 104, but he gets to race from a rating of 102 — meaning he is 2lb’s well in officially. Compare this to Escobar who is currently rated 89, but has to run from a rating of 94  —  meaning he is officially 5lb’s wrong at the weights.

This means that Bopedro gives 8lb’s to Escobar, whereas if they raced against each other in a handicap next week, Bopedro would have to give Escobar 15lb’s (104 vs 89). That means in the Balmoral Bopedro is 7lb’s better off vs Escobar than he should be.

How the information for the horses is written below:

“Name Of Horse” ‘Mark they race from’ - ’Mark they are rated currently’ (‘difference in the two ratings’ ‘+’ = well in, ‘-’ = wrong at the weights)

(If the horse you’re looking for isn’t featured, it means that they run from their current mark, meaning they are neither well in nor wrong at the weights. With the exception of Urban Sprawl, Hieronymus and Spirit Genie, who are all rated out of the handicap, but I doubt these will make it into the race.)

“Well In” Horses:

  • Bopedro 102 - 104 = (+2lb)
  • Millebosc 89 - 91 = (+2lb)
  • Dutch Decoy 92 - 93 = (+1lb)

“Wrong at the weights” Horses:

  • Escobar 94 - 89 = (-5lb)

  • Raising Sand 87 - 84 = (-3lb)

  • Blue For You 102 - 100 = (-2lb)

  • Rhoscolyn 100 - 98 = (-2lb)

  • Bennetot 97 - 95 = (-2lb)

  • Eilean Dubh 95 - 93 = (-2lb)

  • Racingbreaks Ryder 95 - 93 = (-2lb)

  • Orbaan 89 - 87 = (-2lb)

  • Raadobarg 107 - 106 = (-1lb)

  • Awaal 104 - 103 = (-1lb)

  • Helm Rock 100 - 99 = (-1lb)

  • Ropey Guest 99 - 98 = (-1lb)

  • The Gatekeeper 96 - 95 = (-1lb)

  • Dual Identity 95 - 94 = (-1lb)

  • Graignes 93 - 92 = (-1lb)

Remember, the weather forecast looks torrid for Ascot. It will more than likely pay dividends to play the mud-lovers. 

Happy Punting!

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